Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is winning — at least for now.
The New York congresswoman holds a narrow lead over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, according to a new poll that offers an early snapshot of a race still years away but already taking shape in the public imagination.
The Argument/Verasight survey, released Tuesday, found Ocasio-Cortez edging Vance 51 percent to 49 percent among registered voters. The margin sits well within the poll’s 2.7-point margin of error, effectively placing the two in a statistical tie — but one that nonetheless underscores how competitive a future contest between them could be.
Neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Vance has formally declared a presidential bid. Still, both have been widely discussed as potential standard-bearers for their parties, and the poll suggests neither side would enter the race with a commanding advantage.
The demographic splits reveal a familiar but consequential map. Vance performs strongly with white voters, 57 percent of whom said they would support him, compared to 43 percent for Ocasio-Cortez. But the congresswoman dominates among Black voters, capturing 79 percent support, and leads decisively with Hispanic voters at 64 percent.
Gender gaps were also pronounced. Fifty-four percent of men said they would vote for Vance, while 56 percent of women favored Ocasio-Cortez. College-educated voters leaned toward the Democrat as well, backing her 56 percent to 44 percent.
Perhaps most striking are the signs of cross-party drift. Eight percent of voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 now say they would back Ocasio-Cortez in a head-to-head matchup. At the same time, Vance appears positioned to pull five percent of voters who backed then–Vice President Kamala Harris in that election.
The poll surveyed 1,521 registered voters between Dec. 5 and Dec. 11.
Despite her showing against Vance, Ocasio-Cortez remains far from dominant within her own party. Recent hypothetical Democratic primary polling places her behind more established figures like Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Another poll testing a three-way matchup between California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Vance, and Ocasio-Cortez found Newsom leading with 36 percent, while Vance and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 34 percent each.
On the Republican side, Vance has been widely viewed as a natural heir apparent, though President Trump has publicly floated multiple names as future leaders — including Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — while noting that the Constitution bars him from seeking a third term.
Vance himself has played down speculation. Speaking earlier this month, he said he has thought about the future but remains focused on his current role. “The American people elected me to do a job right now,” he said. “And my job is to do it.”
With candidates unlikely to announce any presidential plans until after the 2026 midterm elections, the 2028 field remains theoretical. But the poll offers an early warning to both parties: the next presidential race may not belong to the old guard.
If this matchup ever becomes real, it would pit two sharply different visions of America against each other — and, at least for now, neither side appears ready to blink.
