A new poll out of California is turning heads—and raising serious questions about the Democratic Party’s future leadership ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
According to a recent survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, former Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to gain traction even in her home state. The findings, first highlighted in a widely circulated report, suggest that California voters may be looking elsewhere for their next national leader.
Harris received just 9% support when voters were asked who they would choose as the Democratic nominee for president in 2028. That places her behind several high-profile figures, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
For Harris, the numbers are particularly striking given her deep political roots in California, where she previously served as attorney general and U.S. senator. Despite that familiarity, the poll indicates that voters may be hesitant to rally behind her again following her loss in the 2024 presidential election.
But while Harris’ numbers are drawing attention, the results aren’t entirely reassuring for Newsom either.
The California governor leads the field with 28% support, but analysts say that figure is far from dominant—especially in a state where he is already well known. In fact, fewer than half of Californians currently approve of the job he’s doing as governor, with his approval rating slipping to 48%. Disapproval has also ticked upward, signaling potential vulnerabilities.
When voters were asked to consider both first and second choices, Newsom’s lead widened, pulling in 42% support compared to Harris’ 20%. Still, political observers caution that these are early indicators, not definitive forecasts.
Experts say the results reflect a Democratic electorate that is still in flux, with no clear frontrunner emerging just yet.
Interestingly, the poll also revealed that Newsom outperformed Harris among key demographic groups, including Black voters—where he led by double digits—as well as older, Latino, and male voters. Some analysts suggest his more confrontational approach toward former President Donald Trump may be helping him connect with certain segments of the party.
At the same time, researchers noted that Harris’ lower numbers could be influenced by multiple factors, including the lingering impact of her 2024 defeat and broader challenges faced by women and candidates of color in national politics.
Neither Harris nor Newsom has officially declared plans to run in 2028, but both remain prominent figures in Democratic circles. Harris is currently promoting her book, while Newsom is expected to complete his term as governor in 2026—potentially clearing the path for a national campaign.
The poll, which surveyed more than 5,000 registered voters earlier this month, offers an early snapshot of where things stand—but also underscores how much could change in the coming years.
For now, one thing is clear: while Harris’ low numbers are making headlines, the broader takeaway may be that the race for 2028 is wide open—and far from settled.
