For decades, a Democratic Senate victory in Texas has felt like political science fiction. But inside Republican circles in Washington, the whispers are getting louder — and more panicked.

The fear has a name: Jasmine Crockett.

With just days until the Texas primary, Republicans are locked in a vicious intraparty war between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Nearly $100 million has already been torched on TV ads. The attacks have grown personal and ugly. And increasingly, party leaders are staring at polling that suggests the bloodletting could cost them a must-win Senate seat in November.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the possibility out loud.

“If you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat flips,” Thune said, depending on who Democrats nominate.

The numbers are what’s rattling nerves.

According to polling circulated by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Cornyn leads Rep. Jasmine Crockett by 7 points in a hypothetical general election matchup. Paxton, by contrast, leads Crockett by just 1 point — well within striking distance. Against state Rep. James Talarico, Paxton actually trails.

Nonpartisan surveys have shown similar warning signs.

That razor-thin margin has Republicans envisioning a nightmare scenario: a wounded nominee emerging from a scorched-earth primary, Democrats unified, and Crockett — a Dallas-area congresswoman known for sharp-tongued clashes with Republicans — turning the race into a national referendum.

Republicans have not lost a Texas Senate race since 1988. But this cycle feels different.

Cornyn, backed by Washington leadership and heavy outside spending, has launched blistering ads branding Paxton a “wife-cheater and fraud,” dredging up allegations of corruption and his messy divorce. The NRSC has warned donors in private memos that “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”

Paxton, however, remains buoyed by MAGA enthusiasm and grassroots energy. A Washington GOP operative close to Cornyn admitted bluntly that “all signs indicate that Paxton probably finishes first.”

If Paxton secures the nomination — either outright or after a costly 10-week runoff — Republicans fear they could be forced to pour hundreds of millions into Texas just to hold the line, draining resources from battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan.

And then there’s Crockett.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has already spent $3.4 million on ads featuring her during the Republican primary — an unusual move that effectively elevates her profile. The ads place Crockett alongside figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, branding them “the new radical left.”

Abbott’s strategist, Dave Carney, framed the message bluntly: “You vote for us Republicans, or you get this.”

But some Republicans privately acknowledge the gamble. By attacking Crockett early and often, they may be boosting her visibility and fundraising while validating her argument that the GOP is “scared.”

“They really are scared,” Crockett said at a Houston campaign event. “This is why the governor is spending over a million dollars a week right now against me.”

Inside Republican circles, the fear is less about ideology than electability. Cornyn has argued that Paxton’s legal baggage could hand Democrats an opening.

“Unfortunately, the attorney general has got so much baggage and corruption in his wake that he will jeopardize our chances of keeping this seat red,” Cornyn warned on Fox News.

Even some Republicans who haven’t endorsed in the primary are urging unity. “We’ve got to keep Texas red,” said Rep. Monica De La Cruz.

But unity feels far away. The primary has fractured donors, activists and elected officials. Both Paxton and Cornyn allies are attacking Rep. Wesley Hunt as well, signaling uncertainty about who even makes a runoff.

Meanwhile, Democrats see opportunity. Crockett, known for her no-holds-barred confrontations in Washington, has built a profile that energizes the base. If Republicans nominate a bruised candidate with ethical controversies trailing behind him, the state’s long GOP streak could suddenly look fragile.