Feb 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; UConn Huskies guard Azzi Fudd (35) drives to the basket against DePaul Blue Demons guard Kate Novik (33) during the first half at Wintrust Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
The race for the women’s NCAA tournament’s top seeds is tightening, and after Thursday night, the picture looks clearer than ever.
Texas delivered a dominant win over LSU, and the result carried major implications far beyond the Longhorns’ resume. It served as a statement game for the teams currently sitting on the No. 1 seed line — and a reminder that breaking into that group is going to be extremely difficult.
All season long, the same four programs have held firm at the top: UConn, UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina. Each of those teams also made the Final Four last year, and none have shown signs of slipping enough to open the door for a major shakeup. LSU was widely viewed as the most realistic threat to disrupt that top line, but to do so, the Tigers needed a win over Texas. Instead, the loss likely pushed them further back in the battle.
That doesn’t mean LSU is completely out of the conversation, but their path is now much narrower. If the Tigers want to climb back into true No. 1 seed territory, they will likely need a major statement win — specifically, beating South Carolina on Feb. 14. Even then, LSU would probably need help elsewhere, such as the Gamecocks dropping another game or Texas stumbling multiple times down the stretch.
Feb 1, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins forward Sienna Betts (16) drives past Iowa Hawkeyes center Layla Hays (12) for a basket in the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Meanwhile, another team quietly lurking in the background is Vanderbilt, which still has an outside chance to make a push for the top line. However, their remaining schedule is brutal — made up entirely of Quad 1 games. That gives the Commodores a chance to build a strong case, but it also means they would likely need to survive the SEC gauntlet nearly undefeated to seriously enter the No. 1 seed conversation.
In the latest bracket projections, UConn remains the top overall seed, while Arizona State is currently listed as the last team in the tournament field. On the bubble, Virginia sits as the first team out, meaning they are just barely on the outside looking in as the season heads toward its final stretch.
Feb 5, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Breya Cunningham (25) is blocked by LSU Tigers guard MiLaysia Fulwiley (23) and forward Grace Knox (2) during the second half at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images
So, are the No. 1 seeds already locked? Not officially — but after Texas’ win over LSU, it’s starting to feel that way. Unless one of the top four teams suffers a late-season collapse or LSU (or Vanderbilt) pulls off a huge closing run, the tournament’s top line may already be close to settled.
