Hold onto your hats, Texas—battle lines are being drawn in one of the state’s fiercest Senate showdowns in recent memory.
New polling numbers have dropped, and it’s bad news for Democratic hopefuls Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico. Both are trailing behind two Republican heavyweights, yet surprisingly tied with scandal-scarred Attorney General Ken Paxton. The race is sizzling—and far from settled.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett walks into Holiday Inn in downtown Corpus Christi, Texas, on Jan. 10, 2026.
Democrats smell opportunity, but Texas hasn’t been friendly turf for their ambitions. According to the latest survey from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media—conducted January 10-12, 2026 with 1,165 registered voters (credibility interval: ±2.8%)—who sits atop the GOP ticket could swing the state blue…or leave it safely crimson.
Talarico, currently representing Texas in the state House, is down by three points against both Senator John Cornyn (47-44) and Congressman Wesley Hunt (47-44 again). With Paxton, it’s a dead heat at 46% apiece. Crockett, a firebrand from Dallas’s 30th Congressional district, trails Cornyn and Hunt by five points each (48-43), but also pulls even with Paxton in a hypothetical face-off (46-46). Factor in approximately 9% undecided across all matchups—and a fractured GOP primary—and this dogfight could go anywhere.
The Democratic primary is shaping up as a battle of blocs. Talarico is carving out a lead, clocking 47% to Crockett’s 38%, leaving 15% still on the fence. Talarico is storming ahead with Hispanic and white Democrats, while Crockett commands the Black vote. Men are flocking to Talarico, but women are split down the middle.
On the Republican side, it’s sheer chaos. Cornyn and Paxton are locked in a statistical tie—26% and 27% respectively—while Hunt lags behind at 16%. Nearly 3-in-10 Republican voters (29%) say they’re still undecided, raising the specter of a fiery May runoff.
Mar 4, 2023; National Harbor, MD, USA; Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2023, at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY
A spokesperson for Wesley Hunt is talking big, saying that their candidate is “the strongest general-election option” thanks to “momentum and broad appeal.” Cornyn’s team kept mum when contacted. As for Governor Greg Abbott—he’s rocking an 8-point cushion over Democratic rival Gina Hinojosa, 50%-42%, with 8% of voters wavering.
What’s powering all this drama? Pocketbook pain. The economy is priority number one for 28% of Texans, overshadowing concerns about democracy (17%) and immigration (14%). Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s polarizing legacy endures: 48% give him a thumbs up, while Abbott’s approval splits straight down the middle (47% approve, 47% disapprove).
Emerson’s polling boss Spencer Kimball says the Democratic race is heating up, with Talarico picking up steam, but the GOP field remains wild and unpredictable. With so many undecided voters and the Texas electorate as volatile as ever—the ultimate outcome is anyone’s guess.
