Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the overwhelming favorite among young Democratic voters in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary, according to a new Yale Youth Poll that underscores a deep generational divide within the party.

The survey shows Ocasio-Cortez dominating every Democratic age group under 35, posting double-digit leads over former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Among Democrats ages 18-22, 30 percent say they would back AOC, compared with 20 percent for Harris and 12 percent for Newsom. Her support only grows stronger with older Gen Z voters: 35 percent of those 23-29 say they would vote for her — more than doubling Harris’s 15 percent and comfortably outpacing Newsom’s 14 percent.

Even among Democrats in their early 30s, Ocasio-Cortez leads the field, earning 29 percent support to Newsom’s 15 percent and Harris’s 14 percent.

But the congresswoman’s strength fades with age. Democrats ages 35-44 prefer Harris, giving her 30 percent to AOC’s 25 percent and Newsom’s 16 percent. Buttigieg finds his footing with older voters as well, notching 8 to 12 percent among younger groups and rising into stronger contention among middle-aged and senior Democrats.

Those 45-64 are split: 23 percent back Harris, 22 percent choose Newsom, 15 percent support Buttigieg, and just 11 percent opt for Ocasio-Cortez.

Among Democrats 65 and older, the numbers shift dramatically. Seniors overwhelmingly prefer Newsom, who earns 38 percent support — far more than Buttigieg’s 18 percent, Harris’s 11 percent, Shapiro’s 6 percent, and AOC’s 5 percent. Their heavy backing propels Newsom to the top of the overall Democratic field: 25 percent of Democrats support him nationally, compared with 18 percent for Harris, 16 percent for Ocasio-Cortez, 14 percent for Buttigieg, and 4 percent for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The poll paints a picture of a party split sharply between generations — one wing energized by a progressive firebrand who speaks to younger voters’ priorities, the other more inclined toward experienced, establishment-aligned figures like Newsom and Harris. It also arrives at a moment of heightened speculation about 2028, as Democrats search for a clear standard-bearer.

No candidate has formally launched a campaign, but several have publicly teased the idea. Newsom recently admitted he’d “be lying” if he said he wasn’t thinking about the presidency. Harris, still stinging from her 2024 loss to President Trump, has signaled she is not done with national politics, telling the BBC she could “possibly” be president one day.

The Yale survey, conducted Oct. 29 to Nov. 11 with 3,426 registered voters, including 1,706 under 35, has a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points overall and 2.4 percentage points for younger Americans.

With the Democratic field wide open and the party’s voters split by age, the early signs suggest 2028 may become a generational showdown — one that could determine the future direction of the party itself.