Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn has seen a significant decline in her odds of winning a deep-red Tennessee congressional seat after new revelations emerged about her candidacy. According to Newsweek, ahead of the December 2 special election for Tennessee’s 7th District, Behn’s projected chance of victory dropped from 28 percent on November 5 to just 12 percent by November 25.
Behn, a state legislator, is challenging Republican Matt Van Epps for a seat that has been under GOP control since 1983. The district, which backed Donald Trump by more than 20 points in the 2024 presidential election, has been viewed as a long-shot flip opportunity for Democrats. Recent disclosure of comments and past statements by Behn have fueled concerns among party strategists about her viability in the race.
Rep.Aftyn Behn, D- Nashville, discusses concerns over HB 1663, with Rep. William Lamberth R- Portland during a House session at the Tennessee Capitol in Nashville, Tenn., Monday, April 22, 2024. The bill states “authorizes the death penalty as a punishment for rape of a child, aggravated rape of a child, or especially aggravated rape of a child.”
These developments come as national Democrats invest heavily in the race, seeing it as a test case for their ability to compete in traditionally conservative territories. Behn’s campaign now confronts a rising tide of skepticism as it attempts to build momentum amid increasing scrutiny and fading betting odds.
The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will be held December 2, with early voting already under way. The outcome is being closely watched as a barometer of Democratic strength heading into the 2026 midterms.
