With the California gubernatorial race reshaped by Vice President Kamala Harris’s decision to bow out, former Democratic Representative Katie Porter has moved into the lead — at least for now.
Porter, 50, became a political figure of national attention in 2018 when she flipped California’s 45th Congressional District, part of a Democratic sweep that turned Orange County blue for the first time in decades. Her skill in committee hearings, often punctuated by her signature whiteboard, made her a fixture on cable news and a rising voice in the party. A protégé of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Porter has built her brand on consumer protection, corporate accountability, and progressive economic policy.
A new Emerson College Polling survey finds Porter at 18% among likely primary voters, up six points since April and enough to put her ahead of the field. Republican political commentator Steve Hilton follows at 12%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 7%, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%. Still, 38% of voters remain undecided. Porter’s strongest support comes from voters over 50, those with postgraduate degrees, and white voters.
The poll reflects a political landscape in flux. At the moment Republican votes have mostly been consolidated by Hilton, and with the drop in undecided voters it’s believed that Porter will fill the gap left by Harris, although the race is far from over.
The survey also looked ahead to 2028, finding Governor Gavin Newsom leading early Democratic presidential preferences at 23%, followed by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 17%, Harris at 11%, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance holds 40%, well ahead of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy at 10% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9%.
California voters identified the economy as their top concern, though its share dropped from 40% in April to 30% now. Housing affordability, at 19%, is more pressing for Californians than for voters nationally, while immigration concerns have more than doubled since spring, rising from 7% to 15%.
The Emerson poll also highlighted views on several state and national issues: 61% of Californians see tariffs as a tax on U.S. consumers; 60% oppose mass deportations; and just over half think Los Angeles is an ideal host city for the 2028 Olympics. Support for increased firefighter funding has fallen, with 49% backing more spending even if it requires higher taxes, down from 62% in February.
Porter’s position as the early Democratic frontrunner signals how quickly the race can change — and how much depends on undecided voters. With months to go before the primary, the question is whether her lead represents the beginning of a sustained campaign or simply the first turn in what could be a volatile contest.
