A new California poll suggests former Vice President Kamala Harris is losing ground in her home state, a troubling sign for her political standing as Democrats look ahead to the 2028 presidential primary.
The survey, conducted August 4–5 by Emerson College and released Friday, shows Harris at just 11 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters in California. She trails Governor Gavin Newsom, who leads with 23 percent, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, at 17 percent. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits just behind Harris with 9 percent. The poll sampled roughly 1,000 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The numbers come one week after Harris formally announced she would not run to succeed Newsom, who is term-limited in 2026. In her statement, she said she had decided, “after deep reflection,” to serve “in an arena outside of elected office” for now. Without Harris in the Gubernatorial race the field is now wide open for California Democrats. At the moment Representative Katie Porter is the frontrunner with 18 percent support.
Harris’s political future has been a subject of speculation since her loss in the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump. Selected late in the cycle to lead the Democratic ticket amid concerns about then-President Joe Biden’s health and electability, Harris failed to win any swing states and finished with 2.3 million fewer votes than Trump.
While Harris polled competitively in national surveys immediately after the 2024 election, her position has since slipped. A June national Emerson poll placed her at 13 percent among potential 2028 Democratic contenders, trailing Buttigieg at 16 percent. But the California-specific numbers released this week show her falling back in her own political backyard, a state where she previously served as district attorney, attorney general, and U.S. senator.
Camille Mumford, communications director for Emerson College Polling, noted that Harris’s strongest support remains among Black Democratic primary voters, 30 percent of whom backed her in June’s national poll. Regionally, she performs better in the Midwest and South than in the West or Northeast. Still, Mumford said, “voters appear to be looking for a new face as the nominee,” and Harris has drifted into a crowded pack.
Harris has faced challenges before in consolidating home-state support. During the 2020 Democratic primary, she never built a commanding lead in California and suspended her campaign before voting began.
The new California polling shows just how unsure voters are of Harris. With her new book release she’s remained in the public eye, and while she’s keeping the possibility of a 2028 presidential run open, it’s likely that she’ll have to fight for relevance in a field already packed with Democrats who are more in touch with California’s voters. For a politician once seen as a rising national figure, the erosion of support in California may prove to be one of her most pressing political tests.
